What I was most surprised by in my research was how much did not surprise me. As much as there have been shows in the past that were canceled despite being great and having a decent amount of devoted fans and other shows that survived for a while despite general disinterest, I understand what happened to most of these shows. Some failed to do what people expected or wanted, and others faced stiff competition and had awful lead-ins.
The exceptions were the main point of my research. Shows that were canceled prematurely, at least in my opinion, included Running Wilde, My Generation, Detroit 1-8-7, and maybe also The Event. Although I understand why these shows did not get better ratings when they aired, I think they showed potential for a pickup in ratings in a year or two. Making these shows very available online and advertising on sites like hulu.com could generate interest. Making them available on Netflix Instant Watch as soon as possible allows people to catch up on their own and then go ahead and watch current episodes on air. Also, the current ratings system is way, way off. Relying on overnight numbers rather than comprehensively counting the number of times people watch (and re-watch) online counts out millions of viewers. Most importantly, these numbers are skewed toward different groups of people and consequently different types of television. While procedural dramas with a gimmick can amuse casual audiences late in the evening, they do not register high numbers online. They also are less likely to make money years later on DVD, Netflix, iTunes, or other ways of catching up on seasons of television at a time. Meanwhile, situational comedies and character dramas can engross audiences for seasons at a time, but their availability online makes internet-savvy groups more willing to miss a few episodes and catch up later. Younger groups, such as high schoolers, college students, and parents with busy schedules, are wildly underrepresented in ratings. Networks are less likely to continue making money off those that prefer procedural dramas or older generations that aren’t exactly tech-savvy, but these weigh heavily in overnight ratings that matter in deciding if a show will be canceled or not.
Of course, a lot of information that I was unable to research goes into these decisions. I would love to have found a way to quantify the effort networks put into advertising different shows relative to one another. Also, with respect to my limited time and the amount of material for just four channels, I was not able to consider cable television’s role. Some cable networks will pick up a canceled broadcast network’s show, like what happened to Law & Order: Criminal Intent. Cable networks seem to have a better idea of how to develop a show during several seasons and make material available online for viewers to discover and fall in love with. Critics generally favor cable shows that can take more risks, because they are technically not broadcast to the general public, and shows such as True Blood, Dexter, and Mad Men have enjoyed ever-increasing ratings as well as critical acclaim.
The main conclusion I have drawn from my research is that the four broadcast networks need to consider the potential for future success just as much or more than its current overnight ratings when they decide if it will survive its first season or make it to a second season. This will split television further into two types of television: shows that pass time, and shows that develop characters, story lines, and fan bases over several years.