All Conclusive

With it being the morning of the completion of my Monroe summer, I would like to reflect on the work I’ve done.  In using books on the topic in combination with actual feedback from market participants has allowed me to make better predictions about what will happen in the markets in the next few years.  If you all have been reading my posts or paying attention t headlines on the news or in the wall street journal or financial times, you have seen the trauma that our markets has seen.  With stocks and commodity levels fluctuating, bond yields rising and geopolitical events occurring even more often, the markets have a long ways to go before they reach stability.

In talking to different research experts on the trading floor of firms such as JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Cantor Fitzgerald, I’ve learned that it is these indicators that tell us what will happen in the future.  If stocks are reacting well to the market-more people will move out of the safe havens such as commodities and treasuries into stocks, believing that the economy has gotten better and will be more stable in the future.  However, after seeing treasuries rally when the Malaysian Airline plane went down after being shot, I can vouch that when geopolitical events occur (such as what is going on in Ukraine-people gravitate towards the safer assets).  In analyzing little indicators such as this and looking at what policies the PIIGS (the countries mainly affected by the crisis: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are following-analysts have predicted another recession is heading towards the aforementioned countries once again.

It is for this reason that I enjoyed doing my project, had I not completed my research I would have never been able to predict such a recession.  I have thoroughly enjoyed completing my research and cannot wait for you all to read the end result!